Valladolid 1–2 Rayo Vallecano: Result & Stats

Valladolid

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Vallecano

S. Amallah 51'

Jorge de Frutos 80', 57'

10/5/2024

La Liga · Round 9Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Valladolid43%

×Draw28%

Rayo Vallecano30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchRayo Vallecano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.04

Valladolid

1.31

Rayo Vallecano

1.04

Valladolid creates 26% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 104 away

1.01

creates per match

0.80

1.27

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Valladolid

1.01

Rayo Vallecano

0.80

allows per match

Valladolid

1.27

Rayo Vallecano

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par

Rayo Vallecano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Rayo Vallecano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

70%

Valladolid or Rayo Vallecano

72%

Draw or Rayo Vallecano

57%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

20%

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

73%

Valladolid 2+ goals

38%

Valladolid 3+ goals

14%

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals

65%

Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals

28%

Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

59%

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 81 matches

Rayo Vallecano away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.01 + Rayo Vallecano defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Rayo Vallecano attack 0.80 + Valladolid defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Valladolid scores more

43%

level

28%

Rayo Vallecano scores more

30%

Valladolid at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Jorge de Frutos

Rayo Vallecano · M

8.7

Match Events

20'

Eray Cömert

32'

Juanmi Latasa

46'

Marcos André← Juanmi Latasa

46'

Raúl Moro← D. Machís

46'

S. Jurić← E. Cömert

49'

Lucas Rosa

51'

S. Amallah↳ Raúl Moro

57'

Jorge de Frutos↳ Isi Palazón

62'

David Torres

63'

Gerard Gumbau← Adri Embarba

63'

Álvaro García← Óscar Valentín

68'

A. Tuhami← A. Ndiaye

77'

Sergi Guardiola← Sergio Camello

77'

J. Rodríguez← Isi Palazón

80'

Jorge de Frutos

82'

Unai López

83'

Iván Sánchez← S. Amallah

83'

P. Ciss← Unai López

90+6'

Iván Balliu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidRayo

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots17

1.99Expected Goals (xG)1.50

5Corners13

13Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots17

6On Target3

5Off Target8

2Blocked6

10Inside Box8

3Outside Box9

Passing

39%Possession61%

302Total Passes469

245Accurate Passes398

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.24Goals Prevented0.24

Discipline

13Fouls18

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2