Rayo Vallecano vs Valladolid — La Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Rayo Vallecano51%
Valladolid23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rayo Vallecano creates 64% more chances
Season form · 37 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rayo Vallecano ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rayo Vallecano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.98 · 37 matches
Valladolid away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.66 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rayo Vallecano attack 1.43 + Valladolid defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54
Valladolid attack 0.90 + Rayo Vallecano defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Rayo Vallecano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna
Alaves
Elche
Barcelona
Getafe
Levante
Malaga
Racing Santander
Celta Vigo
Deportivo La Coruna
EspanyolRayo Vallecano
Real Betis
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
Sevilla
Valencia
VillarrealIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Rayo Vallecano host Valladolid on Thursday, 4 May 2023 at 20:00. The match is part of the La Liga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano vs Valladolid
Rayo Vallecano beat Valladolid 2-1 in La Liga on May 4, 2023.
Goals: Raúl de Tomás (48'), Sergio Camello (80'), Sergio León (84').
Rayo Vallecano controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 7.
The match was played at Estadio de Vallecas in Madrid.