Valladolid 0–1 Rayo Vallecano: Result & Stats

Valladolid

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Vallecano

Isi Palazón 65'

1/14/2023

La Liga · Round 17Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Valladolid43%

×Draw28%

Rayo Vallecano30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchRayo Vallecano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.04

Valladolid

1.31

Rayo Vallecano

1.04

Valladolid creates 26% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 106 away

1.02

creates per match

0.82

1.27

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Valladolid

1.02

Rayo Vallecano

0.82

allows per match

Valladolid

1.27

Rayo Vallecano

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par

Rayo Vallecano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Rayo Vallecano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

70%

Valladolid or Rayo Vallecano

72%

Draw or Rayo Vallecano

57%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

20%

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

73%

Valladolid 2+ goals

38%

Valladolid 3+ goals

14%

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals

65%

Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals

28%

Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

59%

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

Rayo Vallecano away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.02 + Rayo Vallecano defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Rayo Vallecano attack 0.82 + Valladolid defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Valladolid scores more

43%

level

28%

Rayo Vallecano scores more

30%

Valladolid at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Jordi Masip

Valladolid · G

8.0

Match Events

28'

S. Weissman← Kenedy

31'

Óscar ValentínPenalty confirmed

32'

Monchu

45+4'

Sergi Guardiola

46'

Óscar Plano← Sergi Guardiola

59'

Ó. Trejo← Unai López

61'

M. Malsa← Iván Sánchez

61'

Álvaro Aguado← Monchu

65'

Isi Palazón↳ Álvaro García

75'

Sergio Camello

75'

R. Falcao← Sergio Camello

76'

P. Ciss← Santi Comesaña

80'

Isi Palazón

82'

J. El Yamiq← Kike Pérez

90+4'

A. Mumin← Óscar Valentín

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidRayo

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots13

4Corners8

17Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target6

5Off Target4

2Blocked3

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

346Total Passes435

247Accurate Passes330

71%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

La Liga: Valladolid 0–1 Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano beat Valladolid 1-0 in La Liga on January 14, 2023.

Goals: Isi Palazón (65').

Rayo Vallecano controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in Valladolid.

Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

La Liga: Valladolid 0–1 Rayo Vallecano