Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Valladolid: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valladolid

Álvaro García 71'

2/7/2025

La Liga · Round 23Estadio de Vallecas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Rayo Vallecano51%

×Draw26%

Valladolid23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo VallecanoExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.94

Rayo Vallecano

1.54

Valladolid

0.94

Rayo Vallecano creates 64% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 6 away

1.43

creates per match

0.90

0.98

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano

1.43

Valladolid

0.90

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano

0.98

Valladolid

1.66

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

Rayo Vallecano-0.08on par

Valladolid-0.40scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano or draw

77%

Rayo Vallecano or Valladolid

74%

Draw or Valladolid

49%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+

26%

Valladolid wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals

79%

Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals

45%

Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals

20%

Valladolid 1+ goals

61%

Valladolid 2+ goals

24%

Valladolid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)

69%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.98 · 37 matches

Valladolid away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.66 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano attack 1.43 + Valladolid defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Valladolid attack 0.90 + Rayo Vallecano defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rayo Vallecano scores more

51%

level

26%

Valladolid scores more

23%

Rayo Vallecano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Álvaro García

Rayo Vallecano · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

Ismaila Ciss

20'

Sergi Guardiola← Sergio Camello

23'

Pedro Díaz← Unai López

29'

Marcos André

46'

Óscar Valentín← P. Ciss

56'

Jorge de Frutos

58'

A. Aznou← Javi Sánchez

65'

F. Grillitsch← Chuky

69'

Adam Aznou

71'

Álvaro García↳ Jorge de Frutos

78'

D. Machís← A. Candela

78'

Juanmi Latasa← Marcos André

83'

Adri Embarba← Jorge de Frutos

83'

Ó. Trejo← Isi Palazón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RayoValladolid

Overview

69%Possession31%

20Total Shots8

2.53Expected Goals (xG)0.42

4Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots8

6On Target3

9Off Target4

5Blocked1

11Inside Box5

9Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

571Total Passes259

491Accurate Passes168

86%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.13Goals Prevented-0.13

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1