Valladolid 0–1 Cadiz: Result & Stats | La Liga

Valladolid

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cadiz

Álvaro Negredo 90+2'

9/16/2022

La Liga · Round 6Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Valladolid43%

×Draw28%

Cadiz30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchCadiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.04

Valladolid

1.31

Cadiz

1.04

Valladolid creates 26% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 59 away

1.02

creates per match

0.81

1.27

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Valladolid

1.02

Cadiz

0.81

allows per match

Valladolid

1.27

Cadiz

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par

Cadiz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Cadiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

70%

Valladolid or Cadiz

72%

Draw or Cadiz

57%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

20%

Cadiz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

73%

Valladolid 2+ goals

38%

Valladolid 3+ goals

14%

Cadiz 1+ goals

65%

Cadiz 2+ goals

28%

Cadiz 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

59%

Cadiz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

Cadiz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.02 + Cadiz defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cadiz attack 0.81 + Valladolid defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Valladolid scores more

43%

level

28%

Cadiz scores more

30%

Valladolid at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Ledesma

Cadiz · G

8.5

Match Events

18'

Monchu

28'

Alfonso Espino

46'

Rubén Alcaraz← B. Ocampo

53'

Fede San Emeterio

57'

José Mari← Fede

61'

T. Bongonda← Álex

67'

Iván Sánchez← Monchu

67'

J. Narváez← Óscar Plano

71'

Álvaro Negredo← Alejo

71'

Zaldúa← Isaac Carcelén

75'

José Mari

79'

Joseba Zaldúa

82'

M. Malsa← Roque Mesa

82'

Sergio León← G. Plata

90'

Sergi Guardiola← S. Weissman

90+2'

Álvaro Negredo↳ Zaldúa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidCadiz

Overview

58%Possession42%

18Total Shots7

8Corners2

12Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots7

6On Target1

7Off Target3

5Blocked3

11Inside Box2

7Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

413Total Passes312

352Accurate Passes235

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls19

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2