Cadiz 2–0 Valladolid: Result & Stats | La Liga

Cadiz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valladolid

T. Bongonda 76' (pen), 69'

5/19/2023

La Liga · Round 35Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Cadiz41%

×Draw28%

Valladolid31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.06

Cadiz

1.25

Valladolid

1.06

Cadiz creates 18% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 82 away

0.95

creates per match

0.78

1.34

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Cadiz

0.95

Valladolid

0.78

allows per match

Cadiz

1.34

Valladolid

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par

Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

69%

Cadiz or Valladolid

72%

Draw or Valladolid

59%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

18%

Valladolid wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

71%

Cadiz 2+ goals

36%

Cadiz 3+ goals

13%

Valladolid 1+ goals

65%

Valladolid 2+ goals

29%

Valladolid 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

56%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

Valladolid away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.55 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 0.95 + Valladolid defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Valladolid attack 0.78 + Cadiz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cadiz scores more

41%

level

28%

Valladolid scores more

31%

Cadiz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Bongonda

Cadiz · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Roque Mesa

33'

Jawad El Yamiq

46'

A. Lozano← Chris Ramos

46'

Álvaro Aguado← Kike Pérez

46'

L. Olaza← Escudero

47'

Lucas Rosa

65'

G. Plata← Sergio León

66'

Fede San Emeterio← Rubén Alcaraz

69'

T. Bongonda↳ A. Lozano

72'

Kenedy← Lucas Rosa

73'

Anthony Lozano

75'

Javi Sánchez

76'

T. BongondaPenalty

77'

Theo Bongonda

77'

D. Machís← J. El Yamiq

79'

M. Mbaye← Jorge Meré

79'

José Mari← Sergi Guardiola

80'

Martin Hongla

86'

Fede San Emeterio

88'

S. Arzamendia← T. Bongonda

90+3'

Mamadou Mbaye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizValladolid

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots6

2.23Expected Goals (xG)0.69

4Corners3

18Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots6

4On Target2

7Off Target3

0Blocked1

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box1

Passing

47%Possession53%

260Total Passes298

170Accurate Passes212

65%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls18

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

La Liga: Cadiz 2–0 Valladolid

Cadiz beat Valladolid 2-0 in La Liga on May 19, 2023.

Goals: T. Bongonda (69', 76' pen).

Valladolid controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in Cádiz.

Cadiz vs Valladolid — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

La Liga: Cadiz 2–0 Valladolid