Cadiz 0–0 Valladolid: Result & Stats

Cadiz

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valladolid

11/9/2025

Segunda División · Round 13Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Cadiz44%

×Draw27%

Valladolid29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.04

Cadiz

1.35

Valladolid

1.04

Cadiz creates 30% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 65 away

1.28

creates per match

1.09

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Cadiz

1.28

Valladolid

1.09

allows per match

Cadiz

1.00

Valladolid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par

Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

71%

Cadiz or Valladolid

73%

Draw or Valladolid

56%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

20%

Valladolid wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

74%

Cadiz 2+ goals

39%

Cadiz 3+ goals

15%

Valladolid 1+ goals

65%

Valladolid 2+ goals

28%

Valladolid 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

60%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

Valladolid away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.28 + Valladolid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Valladolid attack 1.09 + Cadiz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cadiz scores more

44%

level

27%

Valladolid scores more

29%

Cadiz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

I. Ortega

Cadiz · D

7.9

Match Events

25'

37'

40'

44'

46'

J. Gonzalez← S. Ortuno

57'

Chuki← Peter Federico

57'

S. Biuk← Marcos Andre

60'

Joaquín González

68'

J. de la Rosa← B. Ocampo

68'

J. Ontiveros← Suso

75'

R. Marti← A. Pascual

76'

Alfred Caicedo

80'

E. Ugiagbe← I. Tabatadze

90+2'

Chuky

90+3'

A. Arnuncio← J. Delgado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizValladolid

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots11

0.74Expected Goals (xG)0.82

2Corners4

16Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots11

2On Target1

4Off Target5

1Blocked5

5Inside Box6

2Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

409Total Passes420

320Accurate Passes332

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls17

6Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3