Valladolid 1–1 Cadiz: Result & Stats | La Liga

Valladolid

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cadiz

Óscar Plano 14'

Juan Cala 64'

4/24/2021

La Liga · Round 32Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Valladolid43%

×Draw28%

Cadiz30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchCadiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.04

Valladolid

1.31

Cadiz

1.04

Valladolid creates 26% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 59 away

1.02

creates per match

0.81

1.27

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Valladolid

1.02

Cadiz

0.81

allows per match

Valladolid

1.27

Cadiz

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par

Cadiz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Cadiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

70%

Valladolid or Cadiz

72%

Draw or Cadiz

57%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

20%

Cadiz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

73%

Valladolid 2+ goals

38%

Valladolid 3+ goals

14%

Cadiz 1+ goals

65%

Cadiz 2+ goals

28%

Cadiz 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

59%

Cadiz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

Cadiz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.02 + Cadiz defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cadiz attack 0.81 + Valladolid defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Valladolid scores more

43%

level

28%

Cadiz scores more

30%

Valladolid at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Óscar Plano

Valladolid · M

7.6

Match Events

14'

Óscar Plano↳ S. Weissman

27'

Alfonso Espino

58'

Fali Jiménez← A. Fernández

58'

Sobrino← Jorge Pombo

58'

Isaac Carcelén← A. Espino

60'

Fali

64'

Juan Cala

67'

Roque Mesa← Maranhão

67'

Sergi Guardiola← Míchel

79'

Waldo Rubio← F. Orellana

79'

K. Kodro← S. Weissman

81'

Rubén Alcaraz

83'

Iván Alejo

88'

José Mari← Jon Garrido

88'

Álvaro Negredo← Alejo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidCadiz

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots6

5Corners7

11Fouls20

Shots

13Total Shots6

6On Target2

5Off Target3

2Blocked1

10Inside Box3

3Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

399Total Passes238

314Accurate Passes171

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0