Valerenga 1–0 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Valerenga

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tromso

M. Ofkir 88'

10/4/2025

Eliteserien · Round 24Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Valerenga45%

×Draw24%

Tromso31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.38

Valerenga

1.71

Tromso

1.38

Valerenga creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.87

creates per match

1.11

1.64

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Valerenga

1.87

Tromso

1.11

allows per match

Valerenga

1.64

Tromso

1.54

+1.01scores more than expected

finishing

-0.91scores less than expected

finishing

Valerenga+1.01scores more

Tromso-0.91scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

69%

Valerenga or Tromso

76%

Draw or Tromso

55%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

24%

Tromso wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

82%

Valerenga 2+ goals

51%

Valerenga 3+ goals

24%

Tromso 1+ goals

75%

Tromso 2+ goals

40%

Tromso 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

59%

Tromso (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.64 · 8 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.54 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.87 + Tromso defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tromso attack 1.11 + Valerenga defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Valerenga scores more

45%

level

24%

Tromso scores more

31%

Valerenga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd

Tromso · D

7.5

Match Events

59'

P. Meliga← F. Thorvaldsen

59'

P. Strand← E. Sorensen

63'

Oscar Hedvall

64'

L. O. Larsen← J. Hjerto-Dahl

70'

Petter Strand

71'

H. Sjatil← V. Hedenstad

73'

D. Braut← V. Erlien

73'

I. Vadebu← A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd

75'

77'

80'

88'

88'

88'

90+2'

90+2'

A. Mikkelsen← L. Cornic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaTromso

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots13

1.67Expected Goals (xG)1.74

6Corners5

17Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots13

5On Target4

3Off Target6

3Blocked3

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

367Total Passes558

287Accurate Passes475

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls14

5Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3