Valerenga 1–4 Tromso: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Tromso

E. Hagen 77'

D. Braut 89'

K. Antonsen 74'

V. Erlien 59'

J. Hjerto-Dahl 45'

3/15/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Valerenga36%

×Draw22%

Tromso42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.90

Valerenga

1.73

Tromso

1.90

Tromso creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

2.80

creates per match

2.00

1.80

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Valerenga

2.80

Tromso

2.00

allows per match

Valerenga

1.80

Tromso

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valerenga+0.00on par

Tromso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

58%

Valerenga or Tromso

78%

Draw or Tromso

64%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

18%

Tromso wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

82%

Valerenga 2+ goals

52%

Valerenga 3+ goals

25%

Tromso 1+ goals

85%

Tromso 2+ goals

56%

Tromso 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

46%

Tromso (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Tromso away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 2.80 + Tromso defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tromso attack 2.00 + Valerenga defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Valerenga scores more

36%

level

22%

Tromso scores more

42%

Tromso at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

59'

74'

77'

89'

Valerenga

Tromso

Manager: Geir Bakke

Manager: Jørgen Vik