Tromso 2–1 Valerenga: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valerenga

V. Erlien 68'

D. Edvardsson 52'

E. Sorensen 67'

5/31/2025

Eliteserien · Round 9Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tromso43%

×Draw27%

Valerenga30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.11

Tromso

1.37

Valerenga

1.11

Tromso creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.39

creates per match

1.22

1.01

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Tromso

1.39

Valerenga

1.22

allows per match

Tromso

1.01

Valerenga

1.35

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.62scores less than expected

finishing

Tromso+0.49scores more

Valerenga-0.62scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

70%

Tromso or Valerenga

73%

Draw or Valerenga

57%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

20%

Valerenga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

75%

Tromso 2+ goals

40%

Tromso 3+ goals

16%

Valerenga 1+ goals

67%

Valerenga 2+ goals

30%

Valerenga 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

58%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.01 · 8 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.35 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.39 + Valerenga defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Valerenga attack 1.22 + Tromso defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tromso scores more

43%

level

27%

Valerenga scores more

30%

Tromso at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

T. Guddal

Tromso

7.9

Match Events

21'

David Edvardsson

32'

H. Sjatil← V. Hedenstad

52'

D. Edvardsson↳ J. Hjerto-Dahl

54'

Vinicius Nogueira

63'

Ambina Fidèle Brice

63'

S. Sjovold← E. Hagen

63'

M. Rijks← M. Brajanac

66'

Vetle Skjaervik

67'

E. Sorensen↳ M. Rijks

68'

V. Erlien↳ V. Skjaervik

69'

K. Antonsen← J. Hjerto-Dahl

69'

Ieltsin Camoes← J. Romsaas

71'

Abubacarr Kinteh

77'

Y. Paintsil← R. Norheim

90'

A. Jenssen← A. S. Kinteh

90'

S. Prestmo← D. Edvardsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoValerenga

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots10

1.86Expected Goals (xG)1.24

5Corners7

18Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots10

3On Target4

9Off Target3

3Blocked3

11Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

549Total Passes403

459Accurate Passes315

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1