Tromso 4–0 Valerenga: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Valerenga

T. Nyhammer 80'

H. Larsen 45+2', 12'

J. Hjerto-Dahl 22'

7/11/2026

Eliteserien · Round 13Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tromso59%

×Draw22%

Valerenga19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.96

Tromso

1.88

Valerenga

0.96

Tromso creates 96% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 22 away

1.71

creates per match

1.05

0.86

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Tromso

1.71

Valerenga

1.05

allows per match

Tromso

0.86

Valerenga

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromso+0.00on par

Valerenga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

81%

Tromso or Valerenga

78%

Draw or Valerenga

41%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

34%

Valerenga wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

85%

Tromso 2+ goals

56%

Tromso 3+ goals

29%

Valerenga 1+ goals

62%

Valerenga 2+ goals

25%

Valerenga 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

76%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.71 + Valerenga defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.88

Valerenga attack 1.05 + Tromso defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tromso scores more

59%

level

22%

Valerenga scores more

19%

Tromso at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Heine Asen Larsen

Tromso · F

8.2

Match Events

12'

H. Larsen↳ R. Jenssen

22'

J. Hjerto-Dahl↳ V. Skjaervik

45+2'

H. Larsen↳ L. Cornic

60'

M. Ofkir← M. Westergaard

67'

D. Braut← H. Larsen

67'

T. Nyhammer← R. Jenssen

72'

L. Haren← P. Strand

73'

K. Tshiembe← I. Nasberg

74'

D. Edvardsson

75'

M. Tonnessen← S. Innvaer

75'

S. Prestmo← J. Hjerto-Dahl

80'

T. Nyhammer↳ D. Edvardsson

81'

J. Grundt← L. O. Larsen

82'

G. Rajkovic← M. Grundetjern

82'

S. Jarl← H. Sjatil

86'

S. Jarl

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoValerenga

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots18

1.39Expected Goals (xG)0.78

4Corners7

10Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots18

8On Target3

4Off Target6

1Blocked9

7Inside Box12

6Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

407Total Passes639

328Accurate Passes556

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-1.55Goals Prevented-1.55

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2