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Valerenga vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Valerenga
Valerenga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tromso
Tromso
12/3/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 30Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Valerenga44%
×Draw24%
Tromso32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valerenga
1.64
Tromso
1.35

Valerenga creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Valerenga
1.81
Tromso
1.11

allows per match

Valerenga
1.60
Tromso
1.47

finishing

Valerenga+0.79scores more
Tromso-0.44scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Tromso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw
68%
Valerenga or Tromso
76%
Draw or Tromso
56%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+
23%
Tromso wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals
81%
Valerenga 2+ goals
49%
Valerenga 3+ goals
23%
Tromso 1+ goals
74%
Tromso 2+ goals
39%
Tromso 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)
58%
Tromso (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.47 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.81 + Tromso defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.64

Tromso attack 1.11 + Valerenga defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valerenga scores more
44%
level
24%
Tromso scores more
32%

Valerenga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valerenga vs Tromso

Valerenga and Tromso drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.