Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Valenciennes vs Arles — Ligue 2 2010

Valenciennes
Valenciennes
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arles
Arles
P. Camara 90+1'
A. Le Tallec 76'
J. Phojo 68' (OG)
4/17/2015Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade du Hainaut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Valenciennes44%
×Draw28%
Arles28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valenciennes
1.32
Arles
0.99

Valenciennes creates 33% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 76 away

creates per match

Valenciennes
1.21
Arles
0.78

allows per match

Valenciennes
1.20
Arles
1.43

finishing

Valenciennes+0.00on par
Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciennes ↓

Arles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Valenciennes or draw
72%
Valenciennes or Arles
72%
Draw or Arles
56%

Winning margin

Valenciennes wins by 2+
20%
Arles wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Valenciennes 1+ goals
73%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
38%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
15%
Arles 1+ goals
63%
Arles 2+ goals
26%
Arles 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Valenciennes (draw refunded)
61%
Arles (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciennes at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.20 · 175 matches

Arles away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciennes attack 1.21 + Arles defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Arles attack 0.78 + Valenciennes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valenciennes scores more
44%
level
28%
Arles scores more
28%

Valenciennes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
Mamadou Niang
37'
Jérôme Guihoata
43'
Hugo Rodriguez
46'
P. Camara← A. Kabore
52'
Remy Bonne
60'
L. N'Dao← J. Guihoata
68'
W. Domoraud← M. Niang
68'
J. PhojoOwn goal
76'
T. Savanier← K. Kone
76'
A. Le Tallec
81'
R. Poepon← A. Le Tallec
86'
Angelo Fulgini
90+1'
P. Camara

Possession

Valenciennes: 54Arles: 4654%Valenciennes

Statistics

ValenciennesArles
Overview
54%Possession46%
2Corners3
23Fouls16
Shots
5On Target4
7Off Target2
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
23Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides5

Ligue 2: Valenciennes 3–0 Arles

Valenciennes beat Arles 3-0 in Ligue 2 on April 17, 2015.

Goals: J. Phojo (68' o.g.), A. Le Tallec (76'), P. Camara (90+1').

Valenciennes dominated possession with 54% of the ball.

The match was played at Stade du Hainaut in Valenciennes.