Arles 0–1 Valenciennes: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Arles

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valenciennes

G. Pujol 68'

4/17/2011

Ligue 1 · Round 31Parc des Sports (Avignon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arles36%

×Draw28%

Valenciennes37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArlesExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.21

Arles

1.19

Valenciennes

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

0.74

creates per match

0.78

1.63

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Arles

0.74

Valenciennes

0.78

allows per match

Arles

1.63

Valenciennes

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arles+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arles ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arles or draw

63%

Arles or Valenciennes

72%

Draw or Valenciennes

64%

Winning margin

Arles wins by 2+

15%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Arles 1+ goals

70%

Arles 2+ goals

33%

Arles 3+ goals

12%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

70%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

34%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Arles (draw refunded)

49%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arles at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.63 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arles attack 0.74 + Valenciennes defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Valenciennes attack 0.78 + Arles defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arles scores more

36%

level

28%

Valenciennes scores more

37%

Valenciennes at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

G. Danic← R. Mater

53'

R. Cabella← C. Meriem

68'

G. Pujol

71'

B. Soro← F. Laurenti

78'

K. Ghilas← F. Dja Djedjé

84'

J. Saez← R. Cohade

Arles

Valenciennes

1

Penneteau

2

Ducourtio

5

Schmitz

25

▼

Mater

24

Bong

20

Angoua

26

▼

17

14

10

28

⚽

Pujol

1

Planté

4

Baldé

15

▼

Laurenti

26

Lorenzi

28

▼

27

7

6

24

29

▼

Djedjé

18

Kermorgan

53'▲R. Cabella←▼C. Meriem

71'▲B. Soro←▼F. Laurenti

78'▲K. Ghilas←▼F. Dja Djedjé

Arles substitutes

20Cabella5Soro10Ghilas30Yattara3Pavón

29'▲G. Danic←▼R. Mater

84'▲J. Saez←▼R. Cohade

Valenciennes substitutes

8Danic23Saez16Leca15Isimat-Mirin22Loriot9Aboubakar19Nam