Valenciennes 3–0 Arles: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Valenciennes

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arles

G. Danic 83'

C. Sánchez 78'

G. Pujol 20'

11/27/2010

Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade Nungesser (Valenciennes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Valenciennes61%

×Draw23%

Arles16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValenciennesExpected goals in this matchArles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.75

Valenciennes

1.76

Arles

0.75

Valenciennes creates 135% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

1.47

creates per match

0.37

1.12

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Valenciennes

1.47

Arles

0.37

allows per match

Valenciennes

1.12

Arles

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciennes ↓

Arles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Valenciennes or draw

84%

Valenciennes or Arles

77%

Draw or Arles

39%

Winning margin

Valenciennes wins by 2+

35%

Arles wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Valenciennes 1+ goals

83%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

52%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

26%

Arles 1+ goals

53%

Arles 2+ goals

17%

Arles 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

80%

Arles (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciennes at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.12 · 76 matches

Arles away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciennes attack 1.47 + Arles defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.76

Arles attack 0.37 + Valenciennes defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Valenciennes scores more

61%

level

23%

Arles scores more

16%

Valenciennes at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

G. Pujol↳ J. Saez

75'

B. Psaume← S. Piocelle

76'

H. Bouazza← D. NDiaye

77'

78'

83'

85'

Valenciennes

Arles

16

3

2

5

22

28

27

▼

N'Diaye

8

▼

6

29

19

1

4

2

25

A

Mater

6

Bisevac

20

Angoua

8

⚽

Danic

26

Cohade

23

A

▼

Saez

12

Gomis

28

⚽

▼

Pujol

77'▲C. Sánchez←▼J. Saez

85'▲M. Dossevi←▼G. Pujol

Valenciennes substitutes

17Sánchez10Dossevi16Leca21Pallois15Isimat-Mirin19Nam33Massampu

75'▲B. Psaume←▼S. Piocelle

76'▲H. Bouazza←▼D. NDiaye

Arles substitutes

7Psaume11Bouazza1Planté13Abenzoar23Fanchone

Ligue 1: Valenciennes 3–0 Arles

Valenciennes beat Arles 3-0 in Ligue 1 on November 27, 2010.

Goals: G. Pujol (20'), C. Sánchez (78'), G. Danic (83').

The match was played at Stade Nungesser (Valenciennes).

Valenciennes vs Arles — Ligue 1 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 1: Valenciennes 3–0 Arles