Arles 1–2 Valenciennes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Arles

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Valenciennes

L. Touré 24'

A. Le Tallec 90+4' (pen)

O. N'Guette 14'

11/7/2014

Ligue 2 · Round 14Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Arles42%

×Draw29%

Valenciennes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArlesExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.98

Arles

1.23

Valenciennes

0.98

Arles creates 26% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 178 away

1.03

creates per match

0.95

1.01

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Arles

1.03

Valenciennes

0.95

allows per match

Arles

1.01

Valenciennes

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arles+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arles ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arles or draw

71%

Arles or Valenciennes

71%

Draw or Valenciennes

58%

Winning margin

Arles wins by 2+

18%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arles 1+ goals

71%

Arles 2+ goals

35%

Arles 3+ goals

13%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

62%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

26%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arles (draw refunded)

59%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arles attack 1.03 + Valenciennes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Valenciennes attack 0.95 + Arles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arles scores more

42%

level

29%

Valenciennes scores more

29%

Arles at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

O. N'Guette

24'

L. Touré

62'

Q. NGakoutou← G. van Kessel

69'

79'

85'

90+3'

90+4'

A. Le TallecPenalty

Arles

Valenciennes

40

Laquait

4

Coulibaly

22

▼

Ciss

27

Lala

20

Abdelhami

23

▼

Baradji

8

Diarra

5

Enza-Yami

10

⚽

Tallec

9

▼

Poepon

14

⚽

40

15

18

6

20

26

7

27

10

3

⚽

▼

Touré

9

▼

Kessel

62'▲Q. NGakoutou←▼G. van Kessel

69'▲M. Blanc←▼L. Touré

Arles substitutes

11NGakoutou12Blanc8Coulomb13Chimbonda30Yattara

79'▲A. Kabore←▼R. Poepon

85'▲L. N'Dao←▼S. Baradji

90+3'▲M. Niakhate←▼S. Ciss

Valenciennes substitutes

6Kabore12N'Dao33Niakhate17Néry30Charruau