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V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League 2018

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Matheus Jesus 81'
H. Kawabe 54'
A. Suzuki 50'
S. Nakano 35'
2/6/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 1Peace Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki26%
×Draw25%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.11
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.64

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.08
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.79

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.48
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.15

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki-0.08on par
Sanfrecce Hiroshima-0.48scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
50%
V-varen Nagasaki or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
75%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
74%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
10%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
67%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
30%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
10%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
81%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
49%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
34%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.48 · 5 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.15 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.08 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.79 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
26%
level
25%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
50%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
S. NakanoSanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima · M
8.2

Match Events

35'
S. Nakano↳ T. Shiotani
46'
Diego Pituca← T. Matsumoto
50'
A. Suzuki
54'
H. Kawabe↳ S. Higashi
58'
T. Kasayanagi← H. Onaga
65'
R. Germain← M. Kato
65'
S. Nakamura← M. Ohara
74'
N. Campbell← Y. Iwasaki
75'
N. Arai← S. Higashi
75'
T. Arslan← A. Suzuki
81'
Matheus Jesus↳ N. Campbell
85'
R. Yamasaki← Thiago
90+2'
N. Maeda← Kim Ju-Sung

Possession

56%V-varen

Shots

12V-varen

Pass accuracy

51%V-varen

Statistics

V-varenSanfrecce
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots18
1.88Expected Goals (xG)1.96
1Corners5
13Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots18
3On Target7
5Off Target8
4Blocked3
9Inside Box13
3Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
545Total Passes421
447Accurate Passes333
82%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls10
3Offsides1

J1 League: V-varen Nagasaki 1–3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat V-varen Nagasaki 3-1 in J1 League on February 6, 2026.

Goals: S. Nakano (35'), A. Suzuki (50'), H. Kawabe (54'), Matheus Jesus (81').

V-varen Nagasaki controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Peace Stadium in Nagasaki.