Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

V-varen Nagasaki

M. Kato 52'

A. Suzuki 10'

4/18/2026

J1 League · Round 11Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima51%

×Draw25%

V-varen Nagasaki24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaExpected goals in this matchV-varen Nagasaki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.00

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.59

V-varen Nagasaki

1.00

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 59% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 25 away

1.51

creates per match

1.04

0.96

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.51

V-varen Nagasaki

1.04

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.96

V-varen Nagasaki

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

76%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or V-varen Nagasaki

75%

Draw or V-varen Nagasaki

49%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

27%

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

80%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

47%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

21%

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

63%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

26%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

68%

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.96 · 148 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.51 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.04 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

51%

level

25%

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

N. Arai

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · M

7.7

Match Events

10'

A. Suzuki↳ S. Higashi

29'

Diego Pituca

30'

Dudu Giusti← H. Teruyama

38'

Thiago Santana

52'

M. Kato↳ A. Suzuki

61'

K. Kinoshita← T. Arslan

61'

S. Nakano← S. Higashi

66'

T. Kasayanagi← H. Onaga

66'

N. Campbell← Y. Iwasaki

75'

R. Yamasaki← M. Hasegawa

75'

Matheus Jesus← Thiago

77'

S. Nakamura← A. Suzuki

77'

Y. Nakajima← M. Kato

87'

T. Yamasaki← H. Kawabe

90+2'

Diego Pituca

90+2'

Diego Pituca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanfrecceV-varen

Overview

62%Possession38%

22Total Shots8

2.70Expected Goals (xG)0.25

6Corners1

5Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots8

9On Target1

5Off Target3

8Blocked4

12Inside Box4

10Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

520Total Passes337

413Accurate Passes234

79%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

5Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1