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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs V-varen Nagasaki — J1 League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
T. Dangda 88'
K. Shibasaki 45+1'
8/11/2018J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 21Hiroshima Big Arch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima51%
×Draw25%
V-varen Nagasaki24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.59
V-varen Nagasaki
1.00

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 59% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.51
V-varen Nagasaki
1.04

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.96
V-varen Nagasaki
1.68

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
76%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or V-varen Nagasaki
75%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
49%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
27%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
80%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
47%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
21%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
63%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
26%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
68%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.96 · 148 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.51 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.04 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
51%
level
25%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
K. ShibasakiSanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima · M
7.6

Match Events

45+1'
K. Shibasaki
61'
Daichi Tagami
61'
T. Dangda← D. Watari
67'
S. Yoneda← T. Sawada
75'
K. Nakamura← R. iio
85'
H. Kawabe← K. Shibasaki
85'
Y. Maeda← R. Isomura
88'
T. Dangda↳ H. Kawabe
90'
Y. Nogami← Y. Kashiwa

Possession

48%Sanfrecce

Shots

14Sanfrecce

Pass accuracy

49%Sanfrecce

Statistics

SanfrecceV-varen
Overview
48%Possession52%
14Total Shots10
5Corners4
9Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots10
6On Target2
7Off Target4
1Blocked4
10Inside Box5
4Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
464Total Passes493
372Accurate Passes406
80%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

J1 League: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat V-varen Nagasaki 2-0 in J1 League on August 11, 2018.

Goals: K. Shibasaki (45+1'), T. Dangda (88').

V-varen Nagasaki controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Hiroshima Big Arch in Hiroshima.