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V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League 2018

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
S. Sasaki 59'
T. Dangda 52'
4/28/2018J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 11Nagasaki Prefectural Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki30%
×Draw26%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.14
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.43

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 25% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 146 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.21
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.32

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.54
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.06

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par
Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
56%
V-varen Nagasaki or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
74%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
70%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
12%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
68%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
32%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
11%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
76%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
42%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
41%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.06 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.21 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.32 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
30%
level
26%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
44%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
Y. KashiwaSanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima · M
7.8

Match Events

46'
T. Dangda← D. Watari
52'
T. Dangda↳ T. Wada
53'
K. Nakamura← T. Nagura
59'
S. Sasaki↳ K. Shibasaki
64'
R. Niizato← M. Kurogi
67'
K. Yoshino← Y. Kashiwa
75'
H. Kawabe← S. Sasaki
81'
S. Hiramatsu← T. Sawada

Possession

43%V-varen

Shots

5V-varen

Pass accuracy

49%V-varen

Statistics

V-varenSanfrecce
Overview
43%Possession57%
5Total Shots21
2Corners2
12Fouls8
Shots
5Total Shots21
2On Target5
2Off Target12
1Blocked4
3Inside Box15
2Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
516Total Passes680
438Accurate Passes613
85%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls8
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat V-varen Nagasaki 2-0 in J1 League on April 28, 2018.

Goals: T. Dangda (52'), S. Sasaki (59').

Sanfrecce Hiroshima controlled possession (57%) and registered 21 shots to 5.

The match was played at Nagasaki Prefectural Stadium in Isahaya.