Uta Arad 3–3 Arges Pitesti: Result & Stats | Liga I

Uta Arad

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Arges Pitesti

V. Costache 68' (pen)

M. Coman 45'

D. Barbu 35'

R. Matos 28'

I. Radescu 19'

Caio Ferreira 7'

9/13/2025

Liga I · Round 9Arena Francisc Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Uta Arad40%

×Draw27%

Arges Pitesti33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uta AradExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.19

Uta Arad

1.33

Arges Pitesti

1.19

Uta Arad creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.45

creates per match

0.94

1.44

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Uta Arad

1.45

Arges Pitesti

0.94

allows per match

Uta Arad

1.44

Arges Pitesti

1.22

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Uta Arad-0.18scores less

Arges Pitesti+0.06on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw

67%

Uta Arad or Arges Pitesti

73%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

60%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+

18%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals

74%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

38%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

15%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

70%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

33%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

55%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.44 · 26 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.45 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Arges Pitesti attack 0.94 + Uta Arad defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Uta Arad scores more

40%

level

27%

Arges Pitesti scores more

33%

Uta Arad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

V. Costache

Uta Arad · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

Caio Ferreira↳ A. Bettaieb

19'

I. Radescu↳ J. Blagaic

20'

Dorinel Oancea

28'

R. Matos↳ D. Oancea

33'

D. Barbu← B. Van Durmen

34'

D. Hrezdac← O. Popescu

35'

D. Barbu↳ V. Costache

41'

Alin Roman

45'

M. Coman↳ A. Roman

46'

F. Borta← D. Oancea

46'

E. Orozco← J. Blagaic

54'

Esteban Orozco

63'

Y. Pirvu← Caio Ferreira

68'

V. CostachePenalty

72'

Ionut Radescu

73'

R. Moldoveanu← I. Radescu

74'

F. Iacob← V. Costache

76'

F. Tchassem← A. Bettaieb

81'

Denis Hrezdac

82'

Ricardo Matos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UtaArges

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots11

3.28Expected Goals (xG)0.98

10Corners1

18Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots11

6On Target4

8Off Target5

3Blocked2

13Inside Box3

4Outside Box8

Passing

60%Possession40%

380Total Passes264

279Accurate Passes157

73%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1