Uta Arad 0–1 Arges Pitesti: Result & Stats | Liga I

Uta Arad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arges Pitesti

A. Garita 27'

10/30/2022

Liga I · Round 16Stadionul Francisc von Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Uta Arad40%

×Draw27%

Arges Pitesti33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uta AradExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.19

Uta Arad

1.33

Arges Pitesti

1.19

Uta Arad creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.45

creates per match

0.94

1.44

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Uta Arad

1.45

Arges Pitesti

0.94

allows per match

Uta Arad

1.44

Arges Pitesti

1.22

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Uta Arad-0.18scores less

Arges Pitesti+0.06on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw

67%

Uta Arad or Arges Pitesti

73%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

60%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+

18%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals

74%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

38%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

15%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

70%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

33%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

55%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.44 · 26 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.45 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Arges Pitesti attack 0.94 + Uta Arad defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Uta Arad scores more

40%

level

27%

Arges Pitesti scores more

33%

Uta Arad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

A. Garita↳ T. Njiké

40'

Erico da Silva

46'

R. Șteau← R. Pop

46'

F. Matei← M. Dobrescu

57'

Alin Dobrosavlevici

59'

I. Șerban← A. Calcan

60'

A. Jakoliš← D. Bertrand

71'

W. Jobello← A. Stahl

71'

C. Keșerü← J. Cascini

73'

82'

87'

90+4'

90+3'

90+3'

90+5'

90+4'

Uta4-2-3-1

Arges4-3-3

24

▼

Bertrand

14

⚽

Garita

11

Ișfan

10

▼

Calcan

6

A

▼

7

3

92

17

2

1

33

3

▼

18

4

21

19

5

▼

Cascini

7

Otele

29

▼

Stahl

55

▼

Pop

17

Postolach

Manager: I. Poenaru

46'▲R. Șteau←▼R. Pop

46'▲F. Matei←▼M. Dobrescu

71'▲W. Jobello←▼A. Stahl

71'▲C. Keșerü←▼J. Cascini

Uta Arad substitutes

70Șteau8Matei11Jobello28Keșerü6Chindriş23Cibi77Negoescu93Iacob22Hoxhallari

Manager: C. Schumacher

59'▲I. Șerban←▼A. Calcan

60'▲A. Jakoliš←▼D. Bertrand

82'▲G. Crețu←▼T. Njiké

Arges Pitesti substitutes

8Șerban70Jakoliš18Crețu4Colli20Célestine23Constantin12Greab27Donisa77Covaci