Arges Pitesti 0–1 Uta Arad: Result & Stats | Liga I

Arges Pitesti

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Uta Arad

M. Coman 67'

1/31/2026

Liga I · Round 24Stadionul Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Arges Pitesti43%

×Draw28%

Uta Arad29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.03

Arges Pitesti

1.32

Uta Arad

1.03

Arges Pitesti creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 29 away

1.07

creates per match

1.14

0.92

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.07

Uta Arad

1.14

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.92

Uta Arad

1.57

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Arges Pitesti-0.32scores less

Uta Arad-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

71%

Arges Pitesti or Uta Arad

72%

Draw or Uta Arad

57%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

20%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

73%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

38%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

15%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

64%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

28%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

60%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.07 + Uta Arad defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.32

Uta Arad attack 1.14 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

43%

level

28%

Uta Arad scores more

29%

Arges Pitesti at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

D. Alomerovic

Uta Arad · D

8.2

Match Events

18'

22'

26'

45+1'

46'

M. Briceag← L. Sadriu

58'

I. Radescu← J. Blagaic

58'

Y. Pirvu← C. Micovschi

64'

L. Gojkovic← V. Costache

65'

Marius Briceag

67'

M. Coman↳ D. Alomerovic

72'

B. Van Durmen← S. Mino

75'

X. Emmers← V. Rata

75'

K. Brobbey← R. Moldoveanu

80'

81'

88'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgesUta

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots14

0.48Expected Goals (xG)0.46

4Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots14

2On Target4

4Off Target6

1Blocked4

5Inside Box4

2Outside Box10

Passing

46%Possession54%

278Total Passes333

157Accurate Passes226

56%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3