Arges Pitesti 2–2 Uta Arad: Result & Stats | Liga I

Arges Pitesti

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Uta Arad

A. Garita 90+14' (pen), 80' (pen)

C. Keșerü 45'

V. Postolachi 27'

5/8/2023

Liga I · Relegation Round - 7Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Arges Pitesti43%

×Draw28%

Uta Arad29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.03

Arges Pitesti

1.32

Uta Arad

1.03

Arges Pitesti creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 29 away

1.07

creates per match

1.14

0.92

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.07

Uta Arad

1.14

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.92

Uta Arad

1.57

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Arges Pitesti-0.32scores less

Uta Arad-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

71%

Arges Pitesti or Uta Arad

72%

Draw or Uta Arad

57%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

20%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

73%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

38%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

15%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

64%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

28%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

60%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.07 + Uta Arad defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.32

Uta Arad attack 1.14 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

43%

level

28%

Uta Arad scores more

29%

Arges Pitesti at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Kevin Koubemba

27'

V. Postolachi↳ C. Keșerü

40'

Erjon Hoxhallari

45'

C. Keșerü↳ Roger Junio

46'

A. Dobrosavlevici← I. Șerban

46'

54'

57'

57'

64'

Y. Pîrvu← D. Meza Colli

64'

W. Jobello← K. Koubemba

64'

65'

72'

75'

80'

80'

A. GaritaPenalty

81'

S. Milošević← V. Postolachi

90+12'

Idriz Batha

90+4'

Bautista Cascini

90+14'

A. GaritaPenalty

Shots

Statistics

ArgesUta

Overview

10Total Shots12

4Corners1

16Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target5

6Off Target6

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1

Liga I: Arges Pitesti 2–2 Uta Arad

Arges Pitesti and Uta Arad drew 2-2 in Liga I on May 8, 2023.

Goals: V. Postolachi (27'), C. Keșerü (45'), A. Garita (80' pen, 90+14' pen).

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin in Piteşti.

Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Liga I: Arges Pitesti 2–2 Uta Arad