Universitario 3–1 Comerciantes Unidos

Universitario

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Comerciantes Unidos

J. Rivera 87'

Diego Churin 45'

A. Corzo 23'

J. Marina 11'

7/19/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Universitario59%

×Draw24%

Comerciantes Unidos18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.83

Universitario

1.73

Comerciantes Unidos

0.83

Universitario creates 108% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.66

creates per match

0.96

0.70

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Universitario

1.66

Comerciantes Unidos

0.96

allows per match

Universitario

0.70

Comerciantes Unidos

1.81

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Universitario+0.34scores more

Comerciantes Unidos+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

82%

Universitario or Comerciantes Unidos

76%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

41%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

33%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

82%

Universitario 2+ goals

52%

Universitario 3+ goals

25%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

56%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

20%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

77%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.70 · 16 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.81 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.66 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Universitario defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Universitario scores more

59%

level

24%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

18%

Universitario at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Concha

Universitario · M

8.3

Match Events

11'

J. Marina

16'

Martín Pérez GuedesPenalty cancelled

22'

José Marina

23'

A. Corzo↳ J. Concha

33'

Rotceh Aguilar

45'

Diego Churin↳ E. Flores

59'

P. Vivanco← J. Marchioni

73'

H. Calcaterra← J. Concha

73'

J. Castillo← M. Perez

73'

A. Lecaros← J. Marina

76'

J. Rivera← Diego Churin

76'

G. Costa← E. Flores

83'

A. Huaman← M. P. Carpio Ferro

83'

J. Parodi← K. Paico

87'

J. Rivera↳ J. Castillo

88'

J. Carabali← C. Inga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioComerciantes

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots2

1.72Expected Goals (xG)0.06

6Corners2

8Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots2

7On Target2

4Off Target0

3Blocked0

9Inside Box0

5Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

472Total Passes343

406Accurate Passes271

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1