Comerciantes Unidos 0–2 Universitario

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Universitario

É. Flores 54'

H. Calcaterra 12'

9/29/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos25%

×Draw28%

Universitario47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchUniversitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.35

Comerciantes Unidos

0.90

Universitario

1.35

Universitario creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

0.96

creates per match

1.39

1.31

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

0.96

Universitario

1.39

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.31

Universitario

0.83

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos-0.04on par

Universitario-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

53%

Comerciantes Unidos or Universitario

72%

Draw or Universitario

75%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

8%

Universitario wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

59%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

23%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

6%

Universitario 1+ goals

74%

Universitario 2+ goals

39%

Universitario 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

35%

Universitario (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Universitario defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Universitario attack 1.39 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

25%

level

28%

Universitario scores more

47%

Universitario at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Á. Valera

Universitario · F

7.7

Match Events

12'

H. Calcaterra

24'

Diego Campos

49'

J. Bosmediano← M. Almirón

54'

É. Flores↳ Á. Valera

55'

Edison FloresGoal confirmed

58'

I. Regalado← O. Pinto

66'

G. Costa← H. Calcaterra

66'

J. Concha← É. Flores

67'

Sebastián Britos

76'

N. Cabanillas← S. Portocarrero

76'

J. Rivera← M. Pérez

83'

F. Medina← J. Parodi

83'

R. Ureña← Á. Valera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ComerciantesUniversitario

Overview

51%Possession49%

5Total Shots15

5Corners8

11Fouls7

Shots

5Total Shots15

1On Target7

4Off Target5

0Blocked3

3Inside Box9

2Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

368Total Passes360

292Accurate Passes270

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Universitario

Universitario beat Comerciantes Unidos 2-0 in Primera División on September 29, 2024.

Goals: H. Calcaterra (12'), É. Flores (54').

Comerciantes Unidos controlled possession (51%) and registered 5 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Cutervo.

Comerciantes Unidos vs Universitario — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Universitario