Universitario 6–0 Comerciantes Unidos

Universitario

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Comerciantes Unidos

C. Olivares 90+3'

D. Dorregaray 84'

Á. Valera 23', 21'

É. Flores 8'

M. Pérez 4'

4/29/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Universitario59%

×Draw24%

Comerciantes Unidos18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.83

Universitario

1.73

Comerciantes Unidos

0.83

Universitario creates 108% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.66

creates per match

0.96

0.70

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Universitario

1.66

Comerciantes Unidos

0.96

allows per match

Universitario

0.70

Comerciantes Unidos

1.81

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Universitario+0.34scores more

Comerciantes Unidos+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

82%

Universitario or Comerciantes Unidos

76%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

41%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

33%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

82%

Universitario 2+ goals

52%

Universitario 3+ goals

25%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

56%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

20%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

77%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.70 · 16 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.81 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.66 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Universitario defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Universitario scores more

59%

level

24%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

18%

Universitario at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

A. Polo

Universitario · M

9.9

Match Events

4'

8'

21'

23'

24'

34'

42'

46'

R. Salinas← E. Páucar

57'

Edison Flores

63'

D. Dorregaray← Á. Valera

63'

C. Olivares← É. Flores

66'

O. Pinto← E. Lastre

69'

Y. Celi← M. Pérez

69'

H. Calcaterra← J. Concha

72'

Matias Almiron

78'

S. Gonzales← M. Sen

78'

J. Bosmediano← M. Almirón

81'

H. Ancajima← A. Corzo

84'

D. Dorregaray↳ A. Polo

85'

Nelson Cabanillas

90+3'

C. Olivares↳ A. Polo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioComerciantes

Overview

66%Possession34%

19Total Shots13

5Corners3

14Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots13

13On Target2

4Off Target4

2Blocked7

17Inside Box1

2Outside Box12

Passing

66%Possession34%

472Total Passes243

407Accurate Passes189

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos

Universitario beat Comerciantes Unidos 6-0 in Primera División on April 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Pérez (4'), É. Flores (8'), Á. Valera (21', 23'), D. Dorregaray (84'), C. Olivares (90+3').

Universitario controlled possession (66%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.

Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos