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Comerciantes Unidos vs Universitario — Primera División 2026

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Universitario
Universitario
M. Sen 90'
J. Velez 66'
2/9/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos25%
×Draw28%
Universitario47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
0.90
Universitario
1.35

Universitario creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
0.96
Universitario
1.39

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.31
Universitario
0.83

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos-0.04on par
Universitario-0.12scores less

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
53%
Comerciantes Unidos or Universitario
72%
Draw or Universitario
75%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
8%
Universitario wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
59%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
23%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
6%
Universitario 1+ goals
74%
Universitario 2+ goals
39%
Universitario 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
35%
Universitario (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Universitario defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Universitario attack 1.39 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
25%
level
28%
Universitario scores more
47%

Universitario at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
W. RiverosUniversitarioUniversitario · D
7.7

Match Events

46'
R. Aguilar← G. E. Alfaro Martinez
46'
Diego Churin← E. Flores
56'
J. Velez← J. Concha
56'
G. Costa← M. Perez
62'
Rotceh Aguilar
63'
S. Gonzales← M. P. Carpio Ferro
63'
A. Lecaros← R. Sandoval
65'
J. Rivera← A. Valera
66'
J. Velez↳ P. Reyna
70'
R. Urena← H. Calcaterra
77'
K. Pena← J. Vega
90+5'
Matias Sen
90+1'
B. Portugal← L. Escalante
90'
M. Sen↳ A. Lecaros

Possession

40%Comerciantes

Shots

7Comerciantes

Pass accuracy

45%Comerciantes

Statistics

ComerciantesUniversitario
Overview
40%Possession60%
7Total Shots24
0Corners8
12Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots24
2On Target10
4Off Target8
1Blocked6
4Inside Box16
3Outside Box8
Passing
40%Possession60%
266Total Passes380
178Accurate Passes308
67%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
7Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

Primera División: Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 Universitario

Comerciantes Unidos and Universitario drew 1-1 in Primera División on February 9, 2025.

Goals: J. Velez (66'), M. Sen (90').

Universitario controlled possession (60%) and registered 24 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Cutervo.