Universidad Catolica vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Universidad Catolica49%
Deportivo Cuenca25%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Universidad Catolica creates 49% more chances
Season form · 32 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Universidad Catolica ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches
Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Universidad Catolica attack 1.88 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.52
Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.00 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Universidad Catolica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Independiente del Valle
Macara
Leones del Norte
Aucas
Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FC
Delfin SC
LibertadUniversidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
EmelecDeportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
Manta FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Universidad Catolica host Deportivo Cuenca on Tuesday, 17 March 2026 at 21:30. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Liga Pro: Universidad Catolica 1–0 Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica beat Deportivo Cuenca 1-0 in Liga Pro on March 17, 2026.
Goals: E. Mejia (65').
Universidad Catolica controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 16.
The match was played at Olimpico Atahualpa in Quito.