Deportivo Cuenca vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 104+ matches
Deportivo Cuenca40%
Universidad Catolica34%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 104 home / 104 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo Cuenca ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 104 matches
Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.22 · 104 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.55 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39
Universidad Catolica attack 1.41 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Deportivo Cuenca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
9 de OctubreUniversidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
Delfin SC
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
Barcelona SC
Guayaquil City FC
Orense SCDeportivo Cuenca
Mushuc Runa SC
Macara
Manta FC
CD OlmedoEmelecBarcelona SCIndependiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaMushuc Runa SCLDU de QuitoMacara9 de OctubreAucasDelfin SCDeportivo CuencaManta FCTecnico UniversitarioOrense SCGuayaquil City FCCD OlmedoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Deportivo Cuenca host Universidad Catolica on Sunday, 1 June 2025 at 20:30. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2020/2021 season.
Liga Pro: Deportivo Cuenca 3–1 Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca beat Universidad Catolica 3-1 in Liga Pro on June 1, 2025.
Goals: L. Arroyo (5'), B. Palacios (29'), C. Luna Tobar (43'), A. Venezia (45').
Universidad Catolica controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 17.
The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar in Cuenca.