Deportivo Cuenca vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 44+ matches
Deportivo Cuenca41%
Universidad Catolica33%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportivo Cuenca creates 14% more chances
Season form · 44 home / 44 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo Cuenca ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches
Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.52 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46
Universidad Catolica attack 1.41 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Deportivo Cuenca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
LDU de Quito
Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
Delfin SC
El Nacional
Aucas
MacaraDeportivo Cuenca
Imbabura
Cumbayá
EmelecIndependiente del ValleBarcelona SCLDU de QuitoAucasUniversidad CatolicaEmelecEl NacionalMushuc Runa SCMacaraDeportivo CuencaTecnico UniversitarioOrense SCCumbayáImbaburaDelfin SCLibertadIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Deportivo Cuenca host Universidad Catolica on Sunday, 18 August 2024 at 20:30. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2024/2025 season.
Match Recap: Deportivo Cuenca vs Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 in Liga Pro on August 18, 2024.
Goals: K. Minda (12' pen), P. Magnín (16'), E. Clavijo (48').
Deportivo Cuenca controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 15.
The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca.