Universidad Catolica 3–3 Deportivo Cuenca

Universidad Catolica

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Deportivo Cuenca

K. Quevedo 68'

J. Fajardo 67'

J. Cifuente 59'

D. Luna 46'

R. Becerra 45+5' (pen)

N. Romero 26'

3/17/2024

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 3Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Universidad Catolica49%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Cuenca25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.02

Universidad Catolica

1.52

Deportivo Cuenca

1.02

Universidad Catolica creates 49% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.88

creates per match

1.00

1.03

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.88

Deportivo Cuenca

1.00

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

1.03

Deportivo Cuenca

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

75%

Universidad Catolica or Deportivo Cuenca

74%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

51%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

25%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

78%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

45%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

20%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

66%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.88 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.52

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.00 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

49%

level

26%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

25%

Universidad Catolica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Becerra

Deportivo Cuenca · F

8.5

Match Events

26'

N. Romero↳ D. Luna

31'

Sixto Mina

43'

Ismael Díaz

45+4'

Exon Gustavo Vallecilla

45+4'

Nazareno RomeroPenalty confirmed

45+5'

R. BecerraPenalty

46'

J. Fajardo← L. Loor

46'

A. Rodríguez← G. Anangonó

46'

46'

49'

57'

59'

J. Cifuente↳ K. Quevedo

61'

W. Chalá← D. Luna

61'

N. Dávila← N. Romero

67'

J. Fajardo↳ A. Rodríguez

68'

K. Quevedo↳ J. Fajardo

71'

P. Magnín← R. Becerra

76'

E. Clavijo← L. Nieto

78'

M. Méndez← W. Chalá

87'

J. Quiñónez← K. Quevedo

90+9'

Arón RodríguezPenalty cancelled

90+6'

Rodrigo Melo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadDeportivo

Overview

61%Possession39%

25Total Shots5

7Corners1

18Fouls8

Shots

25Total Shots5

10On Target5

9Off Target0

6Blocked0

14Inside Box5

11Outside Box0

Passing

61%Possession39%

458Total Passes306

408Accurate Passes236

89%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

18Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3