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Union Magdalena vs Fortaleza FC — Primera A 2018

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
11/14/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 20Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Union Magdalena41%
×Draw28%
Fortaleza FC31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.26
Fortaleza FC
1.04

Union Magdalena creates 21% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 52 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.13
Fortaleza FC
0.87

allows per match

Union Magdalena
1.22
Fortaleza FC
1.40

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
69%
Union Magdalena or Fortaleza FC
72%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
59%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
18%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
72%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
36%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
13%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
65%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
28%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
58%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.22 · 82 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.13 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Fortaleza FC attack 0.87 + Union Magdalena defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
41%
level
28%
Fortaleza FC scores more
31%

Union Magdalena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Union Magdalena 2–0 Fortaleza FC

Union Magdalena beat Fortaleza FC 2-0 in Primera A on November 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.