Union Magdalena 4–2 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats

Union Magdalena

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Fortaleza FC

A. Guerrero 87'

G. Lucero 45', 43'

J. Mercado 19'

C. Lucumi 72' (pen)

L. Jiménez 48'

3/31/2023

Copa Colombia · 2nd RoundEstadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Union Magdalena45%

×Draw27%

Fortaleza FC28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MagdalenaExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.02

Union Magdalena

1.37

Fortaleza FC

1.02

Union Magdalena creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.63

creates per match

1.05

1.00

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Union Magdalena

1.63

Fortaleza FC

1.05

allows per match

Union Magdalena

1.00

Fortaleza FC

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw

72%

Union Magdalena or Fortaleza FC

73%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

55%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

21%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

75%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

40%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

16%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

64%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

27%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

62%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.63 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Fortaleza FC attack 1.05 + Union Magdalena defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union Magdalena scores more

45%

level

27%

Fortaleza FC scores more

28%

Union Magdalena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

J. Mercado

43'

G. Lucero

45'

G. Lucero

46'

N. Rodríguez← J. Barrera

48'

L. Jiménez

60'

S. Palomeque← A. González

72'

C. LucumiPenalty

74'

J. Hinestroza← R. Pájaro

78'

A. Carreño← J. Castro

78'

82'

87'

90+2'

90+1'

S. Mosquera← S. Navarro

Union

Fortaleza

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Guerrero

⚽

Mercado

▼

Castro

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: C. Rodríguez

60'▲S. Palomeque←▼A. González

78'▲A. Carreño←▼J. Castro

78'▲J. Scott←▼G. Lucero

90+2'▲J. Cano←▼A. Guerrero

Union Magdalena substitutes

PalomequeCarreñoScottCanoPalaciosVegaUstariz

Manager: S. Oliveros

46'▲N. Rodríguez←▼J. Barrera

74'▲J. Hinestroza←▼R. Pájaro

82'▲D. Rivera←▼B. Medina

90+1'▲S. Mosquera←▼S. Navarro

Fortaleza FC substitutes

RodríguezHinestrozaRiveraMosqueraCastilloRodríguezGuzmán