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Fortaleza FC vs Union Magdalena — Primera A 2018

Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
5/24/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 20Estadio Municipal de Cota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Fortaleza FC52%
×Draw27%
Union Magdalena21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza FC
1.42
Union Magdalena
0.79

Fortaleza FC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 83 away

creates per match

Fortaleza FC
1.17
Union Magdalena
0.63

allows per match

Fortaleza FC
0.96
Union Magdalena
1.67

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par
Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Union Magdalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw
79%
Fortaleza FC or Union Magdalena
73%
Draw or Union Magdalena
48%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
26%
Union Magdalena wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
76%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
41%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
17%
Union Magdalena 1+ goals
55%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
19%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
71%
Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.17 + Union Magdalena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Union Magdalena attack 0.63 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more
52%
level
27%
Union Magdalena scores more
21%

Fortaleza FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortaleza FC vs Union Magdalena

Union Magdalena beat Fortaleza FC 1-0 in Primera A on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cota in Cota.