Union Magdalena 1–0 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats

Union Magdalena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortaleza FC

B. Palacios 87'

11/28/2021

Primera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 5Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Union Magdalena52%

×Draw27%

Fortaleza FC21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MagdalenaExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.82

Union Magdalena

1.44

Fortaleza FC

0.82

Union Magdalena creates 76% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 98 away

1.78

creates per match

0.97

0.68

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Union Magdalena

1.78

Fortaleza FC

0.97

allows per match

Union Magdalena

0.68

Fortaleza FC

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw

79%

Union Magdalena or Fortaleza FC

73%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

48%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

26%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

76%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

42%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

18%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

56%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

20%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

71%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.68 · 78 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.10 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.78 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fortaleza FC attack 0.97 + Union Magdalena defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Union Magdalena scores more

52%

level

27%

Fortaleza FC scores more

21%

Union Magdalena at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

L. Jimenez

59'

L. Sandoval

61'

D. Vega← F. Cantillo

61'

C. Lucumi← J. Narváez

62'

J. Palomino

68'

J. Solis

72'

A. Escobar← B. Correa

73'

B. M. Palacios Palacios

87'

B. Palacios

89'

J. Scott← I. Camargo

89'

R. Vanegas← J. Contreras

90+1'

D. Rivera

90+2'

A. Escobar

90+3'

G. Valencia← L. Sandoval

Union

Fortaleza

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: C. Silva

61'▲D. Vega←▼F. Cantillo

72'▲A. Escobar←▼B. Correa

89'▲J. Scott←▼I. Camargo

89'▲R. Vanegas←▼J. Contreras

Union Magdalena substitutes

VegaEscobarScottVanegasCanchanoGómezWallens

Manager: N. Flórez

61'▲C. Lucumi←▼J. Narváez

90+3'▲G. Valencia←▼L. Sandoval

Fortaleza FC substitutes

LucumiValenciaViáfaraCastilloZabalaVanegasAtencio

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Fortaleza FC

Union Magdalena beat Fortaleza FC 1-0 in Primera B on November 28, 2021.

Goals: B. Palacios (87').

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.

Union Magdalena vs Fortaleza FC — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Fortaleza FC