Union Magdalena 3–1 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats

Union Magdalena

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fortaleza FC

E. González 87'

D. Gómez 76'

I. Camargo 32'

J. Melendez 38'

7/26/2021

Primera B · Clausura - 1Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Union Magdalena51%

×Draw27%

Fortaleza FC22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MagdalenaExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.83

Union Magdalena

1.44

Fortaleza FC

0.83

Union Magdalena creates 73% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 96 away

1.78

creates per match

0.98

0.68

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Union Magdalena

1.78

Fortaleza FC

0.98

allows per match

Union Magdalena

0.68

Fortaleza FC

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw

78%

Union Magdalena or Fortaleza FC

73%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

49%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

26%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

76%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

42%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

18%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

56%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

20%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

70%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.68 · 78 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.10 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.78 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fortaleza FC attack 0.98 + Union Magdalena defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Union Magdalena scores more

51%

level

27%

Fortaleza FC scores more

22%

Union Magdalena at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

38'

59'

59'

65'

B. Blandón← L. Jiménez

65'

C. Lucumi← G. Valencia

65'

L. Vanegas← J. Narváez

76'

D. Gómez

80'

A. Escobar← R. Hinojosa

84'

E. González← I. Camargo

85'

R. Pájaro← J. Zabala

87'

E. González

Union

Fortaleza

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Camargo

Manager: C. Silva

59'▲D. Gómez←▼J. Gómez

59'▲R. Vanegas←▼R. Lora

80'▲A. Escobar←▼R. Hinojosa

84'▲E. González←▼I. Camargo

Union Magdalena substitutes

GómezVanegasEscobarGonzálezPalaciosScottSánchez

Manager: N. Flórez

65'▲B. Blandón←▼L. Jiménez

65'▲C. Lucumi←▼G. Valencia

65'▲L. Vanegas←▼J. Narváez

85'▲R. Pájaro←▼J. Zabala

Fortaleza FC substitutes

BlandónLucumiVanegasPájaroGarcíaRodríguezGómez

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Fortaleza FC

Union Magdalena beat Fortaleza FC 3-1 in Primera B on July 26, 2021.

Goals: I. Camargo (32'), J. Melendez (38'), D. Gómez (76'), E. González (87').

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.

Union Magdalena vs Fortaleza FC — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Fortaleza FC