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Unie Hlubina vs Polanka nad Odrou — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Unie Hlubina
Unie Hlubina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
3/23/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 18Stadion TJ Unie Hlubina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Unie Hlubina45%
×Draw24%
Polanka nad Odrou31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unie Hlubina
1.67
Polanka nad Odrou
1.35

Unie Hlubina creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 63 away

creates per match

Unie Hlubina
2.18
Polanka nad Odrou
1.78

allows per match

Unie Hlubina
0.93
Polanka nad Odrou
1.16

finishing

Unie Hlubina+0.00on par
Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unie Hlubina ↓

Polanka nad Odrou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Unie Hlubina or draw
69%
Unie Hlubina or Polanka nad Odrou
76%
Draw or Polanka nad Odrou
55%

Winning margin

Unie Hlubina wins by 2+
23%
Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unie Hlubina 1+ goals
81%
Unie Hlubina 2+ goals
50%
Unie Hlubina 3+ goals
23%
Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
74%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
39%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Unie Hlubina (draw refunded)
59%
Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unie Hlubina at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Polanka nad Odrou away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unie Hlubina attack 2.18 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.67

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Unie Hlubina defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Unie Hlubina scores more
45%
level
24%
Polanka nad Odrou scores more
31%

Unie Hlubina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Unie Hlubina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Unie Hlubina 1–1 Polanka nad Odrou

Unie Hlubina and Polanka nad Odrou drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Unie Hlubina in Ostrava.