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Polanka nad Odrou vs Unie Hlubina — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Unie Hlubina
Unie Hlubina
8/20/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 3Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Polanka nad Odrou40%
×Draw25%
Unie Hlubina35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polanka nad Odrou
1.43
Unie Hlubina
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 28 away

creates per match

Polanka nad Odrou
1.78
Unie Hlubina
1.68

allows per match

Polanka nad Odrou
0.98
Unie Hlubina
1.07

finishing

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par
Unie Hlubina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polanka nad Odrou ↓

Unie Hlubina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Polanka nad Odrou or draw
65%
Polanka nad Odrou or Unie Hlubina
75%
Draw or Unie Hlubina
60%

Winning margin

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
19%
Unie Hlubina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
76%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
42%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
17%
Unie Hlubina 1+ goals
74%
Unie Hlubina 2+ goals
38%
Unie Hlubina 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
53%
Unie Hlubina (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polanka nad Odrou at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Unie Hlubina away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Unie Hlubina defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Unie Hlubina attack 1.68 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polanka nad Odrou scores more
40%
level
25%
Unie Hlubina scores more
35%

Polanka nad Odrou at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polanka nad Odrou vs Unie Hlubina

Unie Hlubina beat Polanka nad Odrou 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou in Ostrava.