Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa — League #203 2026

Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
9/17/2022League #203League #203 · Round 7Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ümraniyespor37%
×Draw26%
Kasımpaşa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ümraniyespor
1.35
Kasımpaşa
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ümraniyespor
0.33
Kasımpaşa
1.38

allows per match

Ümraniyespor
1.33
Kasımpaşa
2.38

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par
Kasımpaşa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

Kasımpaşa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw
63%
Ümraniyespor or Kasımpaşa
74%
Draw or Kasımpaşa
63%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
17%
Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
74%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
39%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
15%
Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
74%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
39%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
50%
Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 0.33 + Kasımpaşa defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kasımpaşa attack 1.38 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more
37%
level
26%
Kasımpaşa scores more
37%

Ümraniyespor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa

Kasımpaşa beat Ümraniyespor 2-1 in League #203 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in İstanbul.