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Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
Y. Mallı 88'
M. Mimaroğlu 86'
A. Mršić 59' (pen)
12/20/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kasımpaşa60%
×Draw20%
Ümraniyespor19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
2.17
Ümraniyespor
1.15

Kasımpaşa creates 89% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
2.53
Ümraniyespor
0.90

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.40
Ümraniyespor
1.80

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
81%
Kasımpaşa or Ümraniyespor
80%
Draw or Ümraniyespor
40%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
37%
Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
89%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
64%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
36%
Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
68%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
32%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
76%
Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 2.53 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ümraniyespor attack 0.90 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
60%
level
20%
Ümraniyespor scores more
19%

Kasımpaşa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
I. Sackey← Allyson
58'
Daniel Graovac
59'
A. MršićPenalty
61'
Y. Mallı← B. Celina
61'
M. Ben Ouannes← A. Engin
68'
F. Koita← S. Bahoken
70'
U. Nayir← A. Bettaieb
70'
Geraldo← O. Ayık
73'
S. Göksu← O. Gürbulak
81'
Raoul Petretta
82'
V. Eysseric← H. Hajradinović
82'
A. Demirel← R. Petretta
85'
O. Atasayar← E. Lenjani
86'
M. Mimaroğlu
88'
Y. Mallı↳ M. Ben Ouannes
89'
Mehmet Umut Nayir

Statistics

KasımpaşaÜmraniyespor
Overview
6Corners2
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor

Ümraniyespor beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 20, 2022.

Goals: A. Mršić (59' pen), M. Mimaroğlu (86'), Y. Mallı (88').

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.