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Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor — League #203 2026

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
M. Fall 29'
A. Mršić 41' (pen)
3/18/2023League #203League #203 · Round 26Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kasımpaşa37%
×Draw24%
Ümraniyespor40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
1.55
Ümraniyespor
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
1.43
Ümraniyespor
1.67

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.57
Ümraniyespor
1.67

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
60%
Kasımpaşa or Ümraniyespor
76%
Draw or Ümraniyespor
63%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
18%
Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
79%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
46%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
20%
Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
80%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
48%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
48%
Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 1.43 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ümraniyespor attack 1.67 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
37%
level
24%
Ümraniyespor scores more
40%

Ümraniyespor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88
A. GholizadehKasımpaşaKasımpaşa · M
7.9

Match Events

29'
M. Fall↳ A. Gholizadeh
41'
A. MršićPenalty
61'
O. Ayık← D. Avounou
61'
K. Yılmaz← V. Gheorghe
73'
A. Kara← M. Malsa
73'
S. Göksu← A. Mršić
79'
Valentin Eysseric
80'
A. Engin← M. Chouiar
87'
Serkan Göksu
87'
I. Sackey← Geraldo
87'
O. Kayode← O. Gürbulak
88'
A. Demirel← V. Eysseric

Possession

59%Kasımpaşa

Shots

20Kasımpaşa

Pass accuracy

55%Kasımpaşa

Statistics

KasımpaşaÜmraniyespor
Overview
59%Possession41%
20Total Shots7
9Corners5
14Fouls23
Shots
20Total Shots7
3On Target2
10Off Target3
7Blocked2
12Inside Box7
8Outside Box0
Passing
59%Possession41%
491Total Passes338
384Accurate Passes219
78%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls23
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor

Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor drew 1-1 in League #203 on March 18, 2023.

Goals: M. Fall (29'), A. Mršić (41' pen).

Kasımpaşa controlled possession (59%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.