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Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
E. Yiğit 62'
B. Kalkan 55'
H. Hajradinović 19'
8/5/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 2Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kasımpaşa65%
×Draw20%
Ümraniyespor15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
2.05
Ümraniyespor
0.85

Kasımpaşa creates 141% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
1.71
Ümraniyespor
1.00

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
0.71
Ümraniyespor
2.40

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
85%
Kasımpaşa or Ümraniyespor
80%
Draw or Ümraniyespor
35%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
41%
Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
87%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
61%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
33%
Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
57%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
21%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
82%
Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 1.71 + Ümraniyespor defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.05

Ümraniyespor attack 1.00 + Kasımpaşa defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
65%
level
20%
Ümraniyespor scores more
15%

Kasımpaşa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
H. Hajradinović
55'
B. Kalkan
62'
E. Yiğit

Statistics

KasımpaşaÜmraniyespor
Overview
3Corners4

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor

Kasımpaşa beat Ümraniyespor 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 5, 2023.

Goals: H. Hajradinović (19'), B. Kalkan (55'), E. Yiğit (62').

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.