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UiTM FC vs Sabah FA — Malaysia Cup 2019

UiTM FC
UiTM FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sabah FA
Sabah FAadvanced
10/26/2022Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Round of 16Stadium Mini UITM

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

UiTM FC28%
×Draw24%
Sabah FA48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UiTM FC
1.20
Sabah FA
1.64

Sabah FA creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

UiTM FC
1.00
Sabah FA
1.27

allows per match

UiTM FC
2.00
Sabah FA
1.40

finishing

UiTM FC+0.00on par
Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UiTM FC ↓

Sabah FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

UiTM FC or draw
52%
UiTM FC or Sabah FA
76%
Draw or Sabah FA
72%

Winning margin

UiTM FC wins by 2+
11%
Sabah FA wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

UiTM FC 1+ goals
70%
UiTM FC 2+ goals
34%
UiTM FC 3+ goals
12%
Sabah FA 1+ goals
81%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
49%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

UiTM FC (draw refunded)
37%
Sabah FA (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UiTM FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UiTM FC attack 1.00 + Sabah FA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sabah FA attack 1.27 + UiTM FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UiTM FC scores more
28%
level
24%
Sabah FA scores more
48%

Sabah FA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: UiTM FC 1–2 Sabah FA

Sabah FA beat UiTM FC 2-1 in Malaysia Cup on October 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadium Mini UITM in Shah Alam.