UiTM FC 4–0 Sabah FA: Result & Stats | League #278

UiTM FC

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sabah FA

S. Gan Giannelli 66', 59'

Joel 17'

Kwon Young-Hyun 15' (pen)

8/28/2021

League #278 · Round 20Stadium Mini UITM

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

UiTM FC33%

×Draw22%

Sabah FA45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UiTM FCExpected goals in this matchSabah FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.88

UiTM FC

1.58

Sabah FA

1.88

Sabah FA creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.50

2.25

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

UiTM FC

1.50

Sabah FA

1.50

allows per match

UiTM FC

2.25

Sabah FA

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UiTM FC+0.00on par

Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UiTM FC ↓

Sabah FA →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

UiTM FC or draw

55%

UiTM FC or Sabah FA

78%

Draw or Sabah FA

67%

Winning margin

UiTM FC wins by 2+

16%

Sabah FA wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

UiTM FC 1+ goals

79%

UiTM FC 2+ goals

47%

UiTM FC 3+ goals

21%

Sabah FA 1+ goals

85%

Sabah FA 2+ goals

56%

Sabah FA 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

UiTM FC (draw refunded)

42%

Sabah FA (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UiTM FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UiTM FC attack 1.50 + Sabah FA defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sabah FA attack 1.50 + UiTM FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

UiTM FC scores more

33%

level

22%

Sabah FA scores more

45%

Sabah FA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Kwon Young-HyunPenalty

17'

Joel

27'

Hanafie Tokyo← Rawilson Batuil

45+2'

U. Bacok

46'

Amri Yahyah← Ummareng Bacok

59'

S. Gan Giannelli

66'

S. Gan Giannelli

68'

Nazirul Naim Che Hashim← Azizan Nordin

68'

Hamran Peter← Alto Linus

70'

Syafiq Al-Hafiz Dawawi← Ahmad Khuzaimi Piee

76'

Bobby Gonzales← J. Ivančić

79'

Rafie Mat Yaacob← D. Buschening

81'

Dirga Surdi← S. Gan Giannelli

81'

Faizal Arif← Farid Nezal

81'

Fauzi Abdul Latif← Joel

88'

S. Ramdani

UiTM

Sabah

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Joel

Ariffin

⚽2

▼

Giannelli

Manager: R. Abdullah

70'▲Syafiq Al-Hafiz Dawawi←▼Ahmad Khuzaimi Piee

79'▲Rafie Mat Yaacob←▼D. Buschening

81'▲Dirga Surdi←▼S. Gan Giannelli

81'▲Faizal Arif←▼Farid Nezal

81'▲Fauzi Abdul Latif←▼Joel

UiTM FC substitutes

16Dawawi7Yaacob17Surdi21Arif29Latif1Jais23Elias34Ibrahim69Samsudin

Manager: D. Kurniawan

27'▲Hanafie Tokyo←▼Rawilson Batuil

46'▲Amri Yahyah←▼Ummareng Bacok

68'▲Nazirul Naim Che Hashim←▼Azizan Nordin

68'▲Hamran Peter←▼Alto Linus

76'▲Bobby Gonzales←▼J. Ivančić

Sabah FA substitutes

36Tokyo17Yahyah77Hashim13Peter9Gonzales4Lowa18Fattah20Milus41Paiting