Sabah FA 4–0 UiTM FC: Result & Stats | League #278

Sabah FA

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

UiTM FC

Bobby Gonzales 87'

Park Tae-Su 50'

S. Ramdani 41'

S. Johnson 28'

4/17/2021

League #278 · Round 9Stadium Likas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sabah FA49%

×Draw24%

UiTM FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sabah FAExpected goals in this matchUiTM FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.17

Sabah FA

1.67

UiTM FC

1.17

Sabah FA creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sabah FA

1.33

UiTM FC

1.00

allows per match

Sabah FA

1.33

UiTM FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabah FA+0.00on par

UiTM FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabah FA ↓

UiTM FC →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sabah FA or draw

73%

Sabah FA or UiTM FC

76%

Draw or UiTM FC

51%

Winning margin

Sabah FA wins by 2+

26%

UiTM FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sabah FA 1+ goals

81%

Sabah FA 2+ goals

50%

Sabah FA 3+ goals

23%

UiTM FC 1+ goals

69%

UiTM FC 2+ goals

33%

UiTM FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sabah FA (draw refunded)

65%

UiTM FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sabah FA at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

UiTM FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sabah FA attack 1.33 + UiTM FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

UiTM FC attack 1.00 + Sabah FA defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sabah FA scores more

49%

level

24%

UiTM FC scores more

27%

Sabah FA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Asraff Hayqal Zainal← Nazirul Hasif Mailang

21'

A. Hayqal Zainal

28'

S. Johnson

41'

S. Ramdani

46'

Rawilson Batuil← L. Madinda

46'

Azizan Nordin← Hamran Peter

50'

Park Tae-Su

67'

Khairul Rizam← Dirga Surdi

67'

Hardee Shamsuri← Rafie Mat Yaacob

68'

Maxsius Musa← Amri Yahyah

78'

Bobby Gonzales← S. Johnson

79'

Nureikhan Isa← Syukri Baharun

80'

Nashran Elias← Faizal Arif

81'

Fauzi Abdul Latif← N. Poku

87'

Bobby Gonzales

Sabah

UiTM

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Johnson

⚽

Ramdani

Manager: D. Kurniawan

46'▲Rawilson Batuil←▼L. Madinda

46'▲Azizan Nordin←▼Hamran Peter

68'▲Maxsius Musa←▼Amri Yahyah

78'▲Bobby Gonzales←▼S. Johnson

79'▲Nureikhan Isa←▼Syukri Baharun

Sabah FA substitutes

3Batuil8Nordin21Musa9Gonzales39Isa20Milus14Karib30Rohim36Tokyo

Manager: R. Abdullah

13'▲Asraff Hayqal Zainal←▼Nazirul Hasif Mailang

67'▲Khairul Rizam←▼Dirga Surdi

67'▲Hardee Shamsuri←▼Rafie Mat Yaacob

80'▲Nashran Elias←▼Faizal Arif

81'▲Fauzi Abdul Latif←▼N. Poku

UiTM FC substitutes

13Zainal11Rizam5Shamsuri23Elias29Latif4Nezal24Sukri34Ibrahim44Khussyairi