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Sabah FA vs UiTM FC — Malaysia Cup 2019

Sabah FA
Sabah FA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UiTM FC
UiTM FC
F. Roslan 62' (pen)
F. Aiman Marzuki 90+1'
10/31/2022Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Round of 16Stadium Likas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sabah FA57%
×Draw25%
UiTM FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabah FA
1.63
UiTM FC
0.79

Sabah FA creates 106% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sabah FA
1.00
UiTM FC
0.50

allows per match

Sabah FA
1.07
UiTM FC
2.25

finishing

Sabah FA+0.00on par
UiTM FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabah FA ↓

UiTM FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sabah FA or draw
82%
Sabah FA or UiTM FC
75%
Draw or UiTM FC
43%

Winning margin

Sabah FA wins by 2+
31%
UiTM FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sabah FA 1+ goals
80%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
48%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
22%
UiTM FC 1+ goals
55%
UiTM FC 2+ goals
19%
UiTM FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sabah FA (draw refunded)
76%
UiTM FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabah FA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

UiTM FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabah FA attack 1.00 + UiTM FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

UiTM FC attack 0.50 + Sabah FA defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sabah FA scores more
57%
level
25%
UiTM FC scores more
18%

Sabah FA at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
F. RoslanPenalty
90+1'
F. Aiman Marzuki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sabah FA 1 – 1 UiTM FC

Sabah FA and UiTM FC drew 1-1 in Malaysia Cup on October 31, 2022.

Goals: F. Roslan (62' pen), F. Aiman Marzuki (90+1').

The match was played at Stadium Likas in Kota Kinablu.