UiTM FC 2–4 Petaling Jaya City: Result & Stats

UiTM FC

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Petaling Jaya City

Gustavo 75' (pen), 45+4' (pen)

Brandão 79'

M. Kogileswaran Raj 66'

A. Jujeen 48'

R. Barathkumar 46'

10/2/2020

League #278 · Round 10Stadium Mini UITM

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

UiTM FC14%

×Draw20%

Petaling Jaya City67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UiTM FCExpected goals in this matchPetaling Jaya City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.10

UiTM FC

0.83

Petaling Jaya City

2.10

Petaling Jaya City creates 153% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

1.20

3.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

UiTM FC

0.67

Petaling Jaya City

1.20

allows per match

UiTM FC

3.00

Petaling Jaya City

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UiTM FC+0.00on par

Petaling Jaya City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UiTM FC ↓

Petaling Jaya City →

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

UiTM FC or draw

33%

UiTM FC or Petaling Jaya City

80%

Draw or Petaling Jaya City

86%

Winning margin

UiTM FC wins by 2+

Petaling Jaya City wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

UiTM FC 1+ goals

56%

UiTM FC 2+ goals

20%

UiTM FC 3+ goals

Petaling Jaya City 1+ goals

88%

Petaling Jaya City 2+ goals

62%

Petaling Jaya City 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

UiTM FC (draw refunded)

17%

Petaling Jaya City (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UiTM FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Petaling Jaya City away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UiTM FC attack 0.67 + Petaling Jaya City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Petaling Jaya City attack 1.20 + UiTM FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

UiTM FC scores more

14%

level

20%

Petaling Jaya City scores more

67%

Petaling Jaya City at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Petaling Jaya City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+4'

GustavoPenalty

46'

A. Jujeen← Mahalli Jasuli

46'

R. Barathkumar

48'

A. Jujeen

63'

M. Kogileswaran Raj← D. Christie Jayaselan

63'

A. Salomon Raj← R. Barathkumar

64'

Asraff Hayqal Zainal← Rafie Mat Yaacob

66'

M. Kogileswaran Raj

75'

GustavoPenalty

76'

Syazwan Zaipol Bahari← Elizeu

79'

Brandão

86'

Saiful Iskandar Saiful Azlan← Afif Asyraf Zabawi

90+3'

P. Gunalan← Filemon Anyie Standly

UiTM

Petaling

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: F. Bernhardt

64'▲Asraff Hayqal Zainal←▼Rafie Mat Yaacob

86'▲Saiful Iskandar Saiful Azlan←▼Afif Asyraf Zabawi

UiTM FC substitutes

13Zainal19Azlan1Jais18Samsudin23Elias39Jazi88Mailang8Zainal44Khussyairi

Manager: K. Devan

46'▲A. Jujeen←▼Mahalli Jasuli

63'▲M. Kogileswaran Raj←▼D. Christie Jayaselan

63'▲A. Salomon Raj←▼R. Barathkumar

76'▲Syazwan Zaipol Bahari←▼Elizeu

90+3'▲P. Gunalan←▼Filemon Anyie Standly

Petaling Jaya City substitutes

16Jujeen7Raj23Raj3Bahari33Gunalan10Sali13Thivandaran21Hazmi30Kugan

Match Recap: UiTM FC vs Petaling Jaya City

Petaling Jaya City beat UiTM FC 4-2 in League #278 on October 2, 2020.

Goals: Gustavo (45+4' pen, 75' pen), R. Barathkumar (46'), A. Jujeen (48'), M. Kogileswaran Raj (66'), Brandão (79').

The match was played at Stadium Mini UITM in Shah Alam.

UiTM FC vs Petaling Jaya City — League #278 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: UiTM FC vs Petaling Jaya City