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Petaling Jaya City vs UiTM FC — Malaysia Cup 2019

Petaling Jaya City
Petaling Jaya City
FT
1 – 0
UiTM FC
UiTM FC
8/18/2019Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 3Stadium Petaling Jaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Petaling Jaya City55%
×Draw23%
UiTM FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petaling Jaya City
1.84
UiTM FC
1.10

Petaling Jaya City creates 67% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Petaling Jaya City
1.43
UiTM FC
0.50

allows per match

Petaling Jaya City
1.71
UiTM FC
2.25

finishing

Petaling Jaya City+0.00on par
UiTM FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petaling Jaya City ↓

UiTM FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Petaling Jaya City or draw
77%
Petaling Jaya City or UiTM FC
77%
Draw or UiTM FC
45%

Winning margin

Petaling Jaya City wins by 2+
31%
UiTM FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Petaling Jaya City 1+ goals
84%
Petaling Jaya City 2+ goals
55%
Petaling Jaya City 3+ goals
28%
UiTM FC 1+ goals
67%
UiTM FC 2+ goals
30%
UiTM FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Petaling Jaya City (draw refunded)
71%
UiTM FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petaling Jaya City at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

UiTM FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petaling Jaya City attack 1.43 + UiTM FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.84

UiTM FC attack 0.50 + Petaling Jaya City defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Petaling Jaya City scores more
55%
level
23%
UiTM FC scores more
23%

Petaling Jaya City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Petaling Jaya City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Petaling Jaya City 1–0 UiTM FC

Petaling Jaya City beat UiTM FC 1-0 in Malaysia Cup on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Petaling Jaya in Petaling Jaya.